March 24, 2015
Where Will the Graphite, Lithium and Cobalt for the Battery Revolution Come From?: Simon Moores
Following the lead of Tesla Motors, LG Chem, Foxconn and others are racing to build megafactories to build batteries for electric cars. Yet even now the world supply of graphite, lithium and cobalt needed to supply these factories is insufficient. In this interview with The Mining Report, Simon Moores, managing director of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, explains that we can soon expect healthy prices for all three metals, but the juniors that will succeed in the market must first and foremost learn to meet the needs of the end users.
The Mining Report: You have said, "Electrification of transport will not succeed unless the world has cheap, abundant, longer-lasting batteries." What are the obstacles to obtaining such batteries?
Simon Moores: There are a number. The first is the scaling of battery supply. The megafactories will be needed to drive down costs significantly. Tesla Motors Inc. (TSLA:NASDAQ), LG Chem Ltd. (051910:KSE; LGCLF:OTCPK), Boston-Power Inc., Foxconn Technology Group and, most recently, Chinese electric vehicle producer BYD (1211:HKSE) have all announced plans to build them. Meanwhile majors like Samsung SDI have announced significant expansions of existing operations. The battery industry is preparing for a surge in demand and its next phase of growth.
But these megafactories will need assured quality raw materials, which is the second obstacle. The third is the security of supply for raw materials. This last obstacle is overlooked at the moment, as the battery industry is taking it as a given they will have supply as needed. But when megafactories come on line, demand will soar. Therefore, supply visibility all the way upstream to the mine is crucial to their success. This is what Benchmark specializes in.
TMR: How does the oil price collapse affect current and future demand for battery power?
SM: This is the question everyone's asking. Without a doubt, a halved oil price has a negative impact on those consumers who want electric vehicles (EVs) in order to save money on gasoline. To be honest, though, the success of Tesla raises the question of how many people are buying EVs for economic reasons today.
Regardless of the short-term effect, I don't think the oil price collapse will have a long-term impact. I see internal combustion engines and EVs as fundamentally different technologies. Once EVs mature, they will be far more efficient and software-driven than cars powered by internal combustion engines. I actually believe that you will get to a stage where a remote software upgrade will improve the cars' performance. You are already seeing this with Tesla. Once you reach this stage, the vehicles will actually improve over time---in essence, cars will no longer be a depreciating asset.
TMR: Would you say that Tesla has a fundamentally different target audience than Toyota Motor Corp.'s (TM:NYSE) Prius?
SM: Definitely. The Prius was created and priced for the mass market from day one. At the time "green" and "cool" did not go hand in hand, so many early Prius owners had to live with an eco-label. The car has since proven to be one of the most economical and best overall models on the road. People now have forgotten about the fact that it is a hybrid and it has been accepted in today's world.
TMR: Tesla is committed to ethical cobalt sourcing, which would rule out supply from the Congo. But the Congo, which currently supplies 55% of world cobalt, is not included in the Dodd-Frank restrictions on critical metals. So we can expect that country to continue to supply the battery industry, yes?
SM: Correct. The Dodd-Frank legislation only applies to the U.S., and it only says that public companies have to report where they source conflict minerals from, i.e., tin, tantalum, tungsten and gold. It is not a trade ban. We really think cobalt wasn't listed because it would have caused significant disruption to what is a niche but important market.
But with such a large proportion of supply coming from one country, and no major secondary options on the same scale, the majority of the battery industry has little choice but to use material sourced here, usually via the refineries based in China.
TMR: What are the alternatives to Congo for cobalt?
SM: It's important to understand that 60% of the world's cobalt-refining capacity is in China. There are environmental and supply restrictions and problems all the way along the supply chain for cobalt because it has been neglected for a generation, as have so many other critical minerals. Now the upsurge in the battery market has forced the world to confront these problems.
There aren't many cobalt companies out there. It's easier to find graphite and lithium as they are not rare minerals, so there's more of these companies listed. Cobalt, and certainly primary cobalt deposits, are much more difficult to find.
TMR: Which juniors are poised to benefit from the rush to find non-African supply?
SM: There are currently three companies based in North America: Global Cobalt Corp. (GCO:TSX.V),Fortune Minerals Ltd. (FT:TSX) and Formation Metals Inc. (FCO:TSX). All three are focusing on developing cobalt assets but out of all three major battery raw materials to date, cobalt has been the most overlooked.
But investors have an information problem. You can't get very reliable data out of the Congo, and this makes it difficult to evaluate these projects on an economic basis. That said, the fact that there are few options for new sources plays strongly into the hands of those juniors developing projects on a supply security basis for North America.
To read the full interview on the Gold Report website please click here
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